Covid cases and deaths to peak in March Says Kemri

Experts from the Kenya Medical Research Institute estimate there will be between 10,600 and 16,800 new Covid-19 cases and 116 more deaths by June 1.  They project the reopening of schools on January 4 may cause a rise of the transmission rate by 25 %. Scientists have projected that Covid-19 cases and deaths are likely to peak in mid-March, with large numbers coming from schools. Experts from the Kenya Medical Research Institute estimate there will be between 10,600 and 16,800 new Covid-19 cases and 116 more deaths by June 1.   They project the reopening of schools on January 4 may cause a rise of the transmission rate by 25%.

“We predict that by mid-February the impact of schools opening should be clear in terms of case numbers,” the experts said. The scientists say more than 1.1 million infections could occur over the same period, with the large majority of infections going undetected. “A worst-case scenario would be an increase in transmission rate by 50%t and resulting in an epidemic of similar magnitude to the second outbreak in the country. We think this is unlikely,” Kemri said in a statement Thursday. This report comes barely two weeks after Health CS Mutahi Kagwe said the government will not declare the curve flattened despite a consistent infection rate below 5%.

“Under normal circumstances and given the positivity rate we have been experiencing over the last one or two weeks we would be thinking about the declaration of a flattened curve,” Kagwe said. However, he said, the government had yet to consider the impact of the holiday season and the reopening of schools. Consequently, the containment measures such as the curfew would remain, he said. The scientists said that the surge experienced in October and November was caused by the relaxation of restrictions and increased movement. The community spread of Covid-19 into rural Kenya than in the first wave was also a factor.

“This model needs updating with the latest data on negative test numbers and to add information on the age distribution on cases and deaths in Kenya,” they said. “These improvements are also required for medium-term forecasts of vaccine effectiveness in Kenya. This stage of model improvements is expected to be completed by early February.” The experts applied models that predicted the pattern of the first peak of Covid-19 cases in late July last year but did not predict the second peak in November 2020.

On Wednesday, acting Health director-general Patrick Amoth confirmed that two cases of the new variant in South Africa had been picked by Kemri teams. The two people who tested positive for the variant, both men, were asymptomatic and had returned to their country. He did not name the country. “This was picked because of heightened surveillance system and at the point of picking them they were all asymptomatic,” Amoth said.